Rethinking the Landes Forest face to the Future Challenges
Arnaud Dragicevic  1@  
Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture - IRSTEA (FRANCE)

The Aquitaine massif, in the South-West of France, is home to the largest Pinus pinaster monoculture forest in Europe. In light of the possibility of occurrence of severe natural hazards, such as the pine wood nematode (PWN), what could or should be done with the bare ground historically dedicated to the culture and the exploitation of maritime pine? In order to address this critical question, we make use of the well-known portfolio management and apply it to the spectrum of opportunities that can be seized in the Aquitaine region. The computation of optimal allocations of assets is built upon two models from the literature on portfolio theory, i.e. the Markowitz Mean-Variance model and the Expected-Shortfall model. Historical data and Monte Carlo simulated data are both considered in the study. According to our results, the Mean-Variance optimization is more prone to the combination of a few assets, whereas the Expected-Shortfall one is further reflected in greater portfolio diversification. While the minimization conducted from data following a non-normal distribution mostly relies on low-risk investments, that from a normal distribution operates through high-risk investments.

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