Evaluating the Impacts of a UNEP Climate Change Adaptation Project by Propensity Score Methods: Evidence from the Central Highlands of Afghanistan
Asadullah Jawid  1@  , Menusch Khadjavi  2@  
1 : Department of Economics, University of Kiel, Germany  -  Site web
Leibniz Str. 03, 24118 Kiel -  Allemagne
2 : Department of Economics, University of Kiel & Kiel Institute for the World Economy  -  Site web
Wilhelm-Seelig-Platz 1, R.5a, 24118 Kiel -  Allemagne

This paper evaluates the impacts of the first climate change adaptation project in Afghanistan, supported under the Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF). Using a dataset of 235 farmers, we employ two propensity score-based methods—nearest neighbor matching and inverse propensity score weighting—to estimate the community level impacts of the project in Bamiyan and Daikundi provinces. The findings suggest positive impacts of the intervention on female engagement in farming (19-25%), on-farm employment (12-17%), and use of improved types of seeds and crop varieties (11%). Our results, however, do not show any significant project effects on the risk of drought, risk of flood, and farmers' overall vulnerability to climate change. We conclude that while the project has been a successful demonstration of adaptation interventions; in order to fully address the existing and expected climate-related risks (in particular drought), a long-term, full-size intervention should follow. 


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