Programme > Papiers par auteur > Thelen Veronique

The Diabolical Spiral: Food Prices and Civil Conflicts
Marie-Helene Hubert  1@  , Isabelle Cadoret  2@  , Veronique Thelen  3@  
1 : CREM, Université de Rennes 1
Université de Rennes I
7 Place Hoche -  France
2 : CREM, Université de Rennes 1
Université de Rennes I
3 : CREM, Universite de Rennes 1
Universite de Rennes 1

Factors of production may be destroyed in countries that experience a civil conflict, which most likely limits agricultural production and drives up domestic food prices. Thus, a country can enter into a diabolical spiral between food prices and civil conflicts. Our study estimates this diabolical spiral by employing three-stage least squares. Our results reveal that a one per cent rise in domestic food prices increases the likelihood of civil conicts by two percentage points the following year, and this magnitude is significantly higher in Southeast Asia. During an episode of civil conflict, domestic food prices are around 69 per cent higher. Finally, we use our results to calculate the impact of the 2006-2009 food crisis on the probability of conflicts. This probability increased by almost 4 percentage points during the 2006-2009 food crisis, with the highest relative increase occurring in the Middle East and North Africa.

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