In the well-known framework of the energy efficiency gap, this paper investigates the role of contextual risk and uncertainty as barrier to make private energy retrofit decision in the French residential sector. More specifically, we aimed to explore how the expectations about future energy price and non-quality of energy retrofits are perceived during the decision-making process. This article employed a stated choice preference survey, elicited via sets of conjoint choice experiments, to reveal the nature of household preference for housing retrofit measure under purpose-designed risks guarantees.

A mixed logit and a latent class models have been developed to examine the nature of systematic heterogeneity in household preferences for the attributes of energy retrofit solutions.

The findings confirm that the non-quality of energy retrofits and the uncertainty regarding future energy prices are negatively perceived during the energy retrofit decision-making process. WTP to be covered against these sources of contextual uncertainty are highly positive (from 1,106€ to 18,423 € for the quality guarantee, from 1,263€ to 14,626€ for the “constant energy price” guarantee). Otherwise, this WTP could vary according to individual risk aversion and the nature of individual expectations about the future trend of energy price. Thus, our research would allow the identification of possible ways of increasing the rate of energy measures in the residential sector.